NEW YORK, Feb 04 (Reuters) -- The steep drop in the Russian birth rate, coupled with a low average life expectancy, may lead to serious economic consequences in coming decades, experts say.
"The total population of Russia will drop from the present 147 to 123 million by 2030," says a report from the Washington-based, nonprofit Population Reference Bureau (PRB).
"The birth rate in Russia fell to only 9 births per 1,000 population in 1996," said PRB demographer Carl Haub. "That means that Russian women are now averaging only 1.3 children, the lowest birth rate in their history."
PRB researchers compare this to the late 1980s, when Russia had one of the highest birth rates among industrialized countries. In 1988, the birth rate was estimated to be 2.2 children per Russian woman, PRB researchers say.
Pessimism about their country's potential may be playing a role in the population decline. "If the low birth rate is telling us anything, it's telling us that Russian couples look to the future and see gloom," Haub says.
Compounding the problem of dwindling births is the short life expectancy of most Russians, due in part to the prevalence of heart disease, alcoholism, and a high rate of accidental death. According to the PRB, the life expectancy for Russian men is just 58 years, the lowest of any industrialized nation. Russian women tend to live longer, to an average of 72 years.
The overall result? "While the birth rate was 9.0 birth per 1,000 population in 1996, the death rate was a lofty 14.4," researchers say. "Once again, this led to 661,600 more deaths than births."
Researchers add that immigration flow into Russia from elsewhere has also slowed to a trickle.
The real problem may come later, experts say, as a rapidly aging population is left to be supported by a shrinking number of working adults. "At the present birth rate, Russia will face even worse future economic problems than previously thought," say the PRB. "By 2030, the (population will be) top-heavy with older persons, leading to severe strains on national retirement systems."
The bureau says similar crises also loom for break-away states of the former Soviet Union -- Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, and Ukraine.
